Is Donald Trump the Best President for Tourism Growth?

I. The First "Trump Slump" (2017–2019): The Pre-Pandemic Warning

The travel industry first coined the term "Trump Slump" in early 2017, within months of Donald Trump taking office for his first term. During the first seven months of 2017, the United States experienced a 4% drop in international visitation compared to the same period in 2016, according to NTTO data.[reference:1] This was not a global phenomenon — international travel worldwide was growing. The decline was specific to the United States, and the travel industry attributed it directly to Trump's "America First" anti‑immigrant rhetoric, the travel ban on several Muslim‑majority countries, and a perceived hostility toward foreigners.[reference:2]

The "Trump Slump" label appeared regularly in major news outlets including NBC News, the BBC, and multiple travel trade publications through spring 2017.[reference:3] Over the full first three years of the Trump administration (2017–2019), international visitor spending was essentially flat — up less than 1% compared to the final three Obama years (2014–2016), bringing in roughly $156 billion per year on average.[reference:4] The U.S. share of overseas travelers fell from 13.7% in 2015 to 11.7% in 2018 — a significant erosion of America's position as the world's top tourism destination — with a further decline to 10.4% projected by 2023.[reference:5]

It is worth noting that prior to Trump, international arrivals to the U.S. had grown steadily every year from 2009 through 2015, when arrivals numbered 77.5 million. But there was a drop in 2016 to 75.9 million, followed by a further drop in 2017 to 75.1 million, according to data compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce.[reference:6] While the 2016 drop preceded Trump's election, the trend accelerated noticeably after he took office.

II. The Second "Trump Slump" (2025–2026): Far Worse Than the First

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the U.S. tourism industry braced for impact. The data that has since emerged is unequivocal — and far more severe than during his first term. In 2025, while global tourism grew by 4%, with international travelers up by 80 million worldwide, the United States was the only major country among 184 studied by the WTTC where international visitor spending fell.[reference:9][reference:10]

The numbers are stark. According to Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, international tourist arrivals to the U.S. declined by 8.2% in 2025 — a dramatic reversal from the projected 9% increase forecast in December 2024.[reference:11] The International Trade Administration confirmed a 4.2% decline in foreign visitors, marking the first annual decline since the Covid‑19 pandemic.[reference:12] The U.S. Travel Association reported a decline of approximately 11 million international tourists, equivalent to roughly $50 billion in lost spending.[reference:13] WTTC projected that the U.S. lost $12.5 billion in international visitor spending in 2025 alone, with revenue falling from $184 billion to $169 billion.[reference:14][reference:15]

The decline accelerated into 2026. In January 2026, international inbound travel to the U.S. fell 4.8% compared to the previous year, marking the ninth straight month of decline in foreign visitation. The U.S. saw steep declines from Asia (down 7.5%) and Europe (down 5.2%).[reference:16] European airline bookings to the U.S. for the peak summer of 2026 were down over 14% year‑over‑year.[reference:17]

The corporate testimony is equally damning. Sebastian Ebel, chief executive officer of TUI — Europe's largest travel agency — told analysts that the company sees "good demand for the Middle East, for Asia" but "less good demand for the U.S." Steven Zaat, chief financial officer of the Air France‑KLM airline group, noted soft demand from Northern European countries to the U.S., adding: "If you look at how popular the U.S. is currently in those countries, it is at a very, very low level."[reference:18]

III. The Trump Administration's Case: "No One Has Done More for American Tourism"

To be fair and complete, the Trump administration's argument must be examined on its own terms. When Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly was asked whether the White House was worried about visitor numbers, she was unequivocal: "President Trump has done more for American tourism than anyone, including by making our cities safe and beautiful again for all to enjoy and bringing major events like the Los Angeles Olympics and FIFA World Cup to the United States. His America First agenda has restored our country's place as the leader of the free world once again — making it the best place to live or visit."[reference:22]

The administration's case rests on several pillars. First, domestic tourism. Trump's policies — including tax cuts and economic stimulus — are framed as increasing disposable income and encouraging Americans to travel more within the U.S.[reference:23] Florida state tourism data supports this: more than 140 million people visited the state in 2025, the highest number on record, with Americans accounting for the vast majority of arrivals.[reference:24] Palm Beach County — home to Trump's Mar‑a‑Lago resort — hosted a record‑breaking 5.72 million visitors in the first half of 2025, up 531,000 compared to the same period in 2024.[reference:25]

Second, the "No Tax on Tips" policy. Signed into law as part of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," this provision eliminates federal income taxes on tips for workers in qualifying occupations, up to $25,000 annually.[reference:26] The policy was designed to boost take‑home pay for millions of hospitality workers — from bartenders to hotel staff — and, by extension, strengthen the service economy that underpins tourism.

Third, major global events. The United States is co‑hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup and will host the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. The World Cup alone is expected to bring 1.24 million international visitors to North America. The Trump administration has taken steps to facilitate this — including suspending visa bond requirements for World Cup ticket holders.[reference:27]

Fourth, the safety argument. Trump frequently argues that security equals tourism growth. His administration has emphasized stricter border enforcement, expanded vetting procedures, and a tougher stance on immigration. The logic is straightforward: if a country is perceived as safer and more controlled, more people will want to visit.[reference:28]

IV. The Policies That Drove Tourists Away: A Forensic Examination

To understand why international tourists are staying away, one must examine the specific policies implemented by the Trump administration. The $250 visa integrity fee. The administration imposed a new fee of $250 for foreign tourists, business travelers, and students.[reference:29] WTTC projected the fee would result in a potential loss of $12.5 billion in visitor spending in 2025 alone.

The travel bans. In June 2025, Trump ordered a full ban on travelers from 12 countries, preventing people from those countries from applying for immigrant visas or nonimmigrant visas for tourism, work, or study. The administration also suspended visa issuance to 75 countries.[reference:30][reference:31]

The immigration crackdown. Reports of tourists being detained for weeks or turned back at the border increased significantly. A Norwegian tourist claimed he was denied entry because of a meme of Vice President JD Vance on his phone. A Welsh backpacker was held for nearly three weeks at a U.S.–Canada land crossing. A German tourist was detained for a month and a half, including eight days in solitary confinement. An American citizen and her German fiancé were detained near San Diego when trying to re‑enter after visiting Mexico.[reference:32]

The social media screening proposal. U.S. Customs and Border Protection proposed looking at five years' worth of social media posts from millions of tourists. Travel expert Pauline Frommer warned this "could lead to delays that have a ripple effect on the economy."[reference:33]

The Brand USA budget cut. A Senate committee led by Senator Ted Cruz slashed the budget of Brand USA — the country's public‑private destination marketing organization — from $100 million to $20 million, an 80% cut.[reference:34] The U.S. Travel Association said it was "deeply concerned," noting that "for every $1 spent on marketing, Brand USA adds $25 to the U.S. economy." Brand USA subsequently cut 15% of its workforce and ended its GoUSA TV streaming channel.[reference:35]

The Canadian boycott. Perhaps the most devastating single factor has been the collapse of Canadian travel. Canada accounts for 28% of total international tourist arrivals to the U.S. Trump's tariffs on Canadian imports (25%), his repeated assertions that Canada should become the "51st state," and hostile rhetoric have correlated with Canadians souring on their southern neighbor. Canadian visits dropped 22% year‑over‑year in 2025, costing the U.S. economy $4.5 billion. Canadian air bookings to the U.S. are down 35–43% year‑on‑year.[reference:36][reference:37][reference:38]

V. The Domestic Counter‑Balance: Is It Enough?

The Trump administration and its supporters have pointed to domestic tourism as evidence that the overall picture is healthier than international data suggests. Florida's record‑breaking 140 million visitors, Palm Beach County's surge, and continued strong domestic travel spending in some regions all demonstrate that American travelers have not abandoned their own country.[reference:39] The U.S. remains the world's largest domestic travel market, and for many tourism‑dependent businesses, the domestic tourist is far more important than the international one.

However, the domestic argument has significant weaknesses. A report from the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (JEC) found that domestic airline passenger boardings declined by more than 10.7 million in 2025 compared to 2024, and visitors to sites in the National Park System dropped by 15 million, costing nearby communities an estimated $1.3 billion in revenue.[reference:40] This suggests that even domestic tourism may be softening — possibly due to economic uncertainty caused by tariff‑driven inflation and reduced consumer confidence.

Moreover, international tourists spend significantly more per visit than domestic travelers. They stay longer, book higher‑end accommodations, and purchase more experiences. The loss of 11 million international visitors — equivalent to $50 billion in spending — cannot be fully compensated by domestic travel, particularly when domestic boardings are also declining.

VI. Impact on Key Tourism Sectors: Las Vegas, Airlines, and National Parks

Las Vegas — one of the world's most iconic tourism cities — has been hit particularly hard. Visitation fell 7.5% in 2025 to roughly 38.5 million people, the lowest since 2021, with June 2025 logging an 11.3% year‑over‑year drop.[reference:41] Workers in the Las Vegas hospitality industry reported reductions in work hours, drops in tipped revenue, and being reassigned to positions that receive fewer tips — a painful irony given that Trump's "no tax on tips" policy was designed to help these very workers.[reference:42]

Airlines have been caught in the crossfire of Trump's trade wars. Tariffs on steel and aluminum have increased the cost of aircraft manufacturing and maintenance. Trade tensions with China have reduced lucrative business travel routes. And the overall decline in international visitors — particularly the collapse of the Canadian market — has forced carriers to reduce capacity on North American routes. The combination of higher fuel costs (driven by Middle East instability) and softer demand has created a challenging operating environment for the entire aviation sector.

VII. The Global Context: America Falls Behind

The most damning statistic in the entire Trump tourism debate is not an absolute number — it is a relative one. In 2025, global international travel increased by 4%, according to the UN's tourism agency.[reference:43] While the rest of the world was welcoming back travelers, the United States was the only major destination to see a decline. Countries like China gained 10.3% more revenue from travel compared to pre‑pandemic levels. Colombia saw a 6.6% increase. Even France, Uzbekistan, and Argentina — countries without America's tourism infrastructure — were growing their international visitor base.[reference:44]

China is now projected to overtake the United States as the world's largest travel and tourism market. Travel and tourism in China contributed $1.75 trillion to GDP in 2025, growing 9.9% year‑on‑year. There were around 150 million inbound visitors to China in 2025, versus just 68 million to the U.S.[reference:45] WTTC President Gloria Guevara warned bluntly: "To avoid losing its leadership position, the U.S. must invest in promoting its attractiveness… and position the U.S. as a welcoming destination."[reference:46]

VIII. Final Verdict: The Evidence Speaks

Is Donald Trump the best president for tourism growth? The data provides a clear answer — and it is more nuanced than either his supporters or detractors might expect.

On the positive side, Trump's presidency has coincided with robust domestic tourism in key markets like Florida. His "No Tax on Tips" policy provides tangible financial benefits to hospitality workers. The United States is hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Olympics — events that will generate billions in tourism revenue. And his supporters argue that a strong‑dollar, high‑spending, "premium" tourism model is preferable to mass‑market volume.

On the negative side, the evidence is overwhelming. Under Trump, the United States became the only major country in the world with declining international tourism revenue. International arrivals fell 4.2–8.2% in 2025 while global tourism grew 4%. The country lost between $12.5 billion and $29 billion in expected tourism revenue compared to pre‑Trump forecasts. Approximately 11 million fewer international tourists visited — equivalent to $50 billion in lost spending. Canada, historically America's most reliable source of visitors, has effectively boycotted travel to the U.S. European demand has collapsed to what airline executives describe as "very, very low" levels. Brand USA, the nation's tourism marketing arm, has been gutted by an 80% budget cut, precisely when it was needed most. And China is poised to overtake the United States as the world's largest travel and tourism market.

The most charitable interpretation of Trump's tourism record is that he has traded international visitors for domestic ones — and even on that metric, declining airline boardings and national park visits suggest the trade may not be working. The less charitable interpretation — shared by the WTTC, the U.S. Travel Association, multiple airline CEOs, and the data itself — is that Trump's policies have inflicted serious, measurable, and potentially lasting damage on America's position as the world's premier tourism destination.

The numbers do not lie. On the metric that matters most — international tourism growth — Donald Trump is not the best president for tourism. He is, by the data, the president under whom America's global tourism market share has contracted most sharply. For the safari traveler reading this in Tanzania, the lesson is clear: while America turns inward, the rest of the world — including East Africa — welcomes the travelers that the United States has turned away.